a builder's codex
codex · operators · Chris Zukowski

Chris Zukowski

Chris Zukowski founded How to Market a Game, a research and education platform for indie game developers. He tracks Steam wishlist data, launch conversion rates, and Valve algorithm changes to help independent studios build discoverability strategies grounded in empirical evidence. His analysis has covered Steam Next Fest performance patterns, Popular Upcoming eligibility changes, and the emerging role of personalized discovery surfaces in pre-launch campaigns.

Operating themes

Insights · 14

Tier B · game-growth · game-building
Indie games find their hook by amplifying one element of a proven genre 10,000-fold, not by mixing genres
Tier B · growth · founder-operator
A 19 percent demo-to-wishlist conversion rate is the expected median; demos target hardcore discovery players, not mass wishlisting
Tier B · game-growth · indie-dev
A free demo gives a game access to Steam's discovery widgets, which generated 48 times more wishlists than YouTube Shorts
Tier B · game-growth · indie-dev
Festival genre fit predicts indie game visibility ROI more reliably than total festival count
Tier A · game-publishing · founder-operator
Co-op party game demand resets every 3-9 months with a rising ceiling; the dominant title fades to 10% of concurrent players while total genre volume compounds each cycle
Tier B · game-growth · founder-operator
October is the worst month for serious horror game revenue, not the best
Tier B · game-growth · growth-demand
October is the third-worst revenue month for indie horror games because Steam algorithm amplification is diluted by a 60 percent surge in competing horror releases
Tier B · game-growth · founder-operator
Horror games earn more median revenue launching in June than in October because Steam features catalog titles in October, not new releases
Tier B · game-growth · founder-operator
A game's core idea is the primary driver of marketing outcomes; identical playbooks diverge based on idea quality
Tier B · growth-demand · founder-operator
Two-week pre-festival wishlist momentum predicts Steam Next Fest results better than total accumulated wishlists, with a Spearman correlation of 0.81 versus 0.76
Tier B · growth · founder-operator
Indie games cannot be over-exposed on Steam because the platform's 132 million monthly active users make the reachable audience effectively unlimited
Tier B · growth · founder-operator
Steam's Personal Calendar widget is now the primary pre-launch discovery path for indie games without large wishlist counts
Tier B · growth-demand · founder-operator
Steam's algorithm suppresses AI-generated games after the first two days of Next Fest, so AI slop harms niche early traffic but not mainstream player discovery
Tier B · game-growth · founder-operator
Steam algorithmic widget placement generates more sustained wishlist velocity than social media virality for indie games
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